The seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.02 million sales in February was also well below the pandemic peak, but was up from the prior years. The current era remains solidly below that peak. “Some who had previously qualified at a 3% mortgage rate are no longer able to buy at the 4% rate,” the report said. It pointed out that monthly payments had risen by 28% from a year ago. “Housing affordability continues to be a major challenge, as buyers are getting a double whammy: rising mortgage rates and sustained price increases,” the NAR said in the press release. Sales of previously owned houses, condos, and co-ops in February fell by 7.2% in February from January, and by 2.2% year-over-year, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.02 million homes, the seventh month in a row of year-over-year declines (historic data via YCharts): There is a well-established pattern: Sales activity picks up in the early phases of the cycle of rising mortgage rates, and we saw some of that, but it’s getting impossible for an increasing number of potential home buyers. It’s not a secret: As mortgage rates rise, more and more buyers are priced out at these sky-high prices, and they step away from the market.īut among buyers who still qualify, rising mortgage rates trigger a mad scramble to buy something “now,” no matter what the price and no questions asked, and they’re waving inspections and are taking huge risks – even NPR aired something like a warning about that yesterday, LOL – to lock in whatever mortgage rates are still available before they rise even further. Last month, I speculated that 4% might be the magic number beyond which the housing market is going to feel it. Now it’s only March 2022, and we’re at 4.5% already. In its report for November, the National Association of Realtors expected the average 30-year mortgage rate to reach 3.70% by the end of 2022. Since last fall, the average rate has jumped by 1.5 percentage points, from 3% to 4.5% (chart via Mortgage News Daily): In mid-February, the average conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate had just edged over 4% for the first time since 2019, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly index.Īccording to the daily measure by Mortgage News Daily, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage hit 4.50% yesterday, the highest since March 2019.
OK, the “existing home sales” data released today by the National Association of Realtors was for February, and in February the average mortgage rates were a lot lower than today.
But it doesn’t yet reflect the recent spike in mortgage rates to 4.5%.
0 kommentar(er)
